RESULTS of the exit poll conducted by the Social Weather Stations for TV 5 correctly predicted the winners in the presidential and vice presidential elections, differing only from the June 8 official tally by the National Board of Canvassers by an average of less than 1 percent—0.4 percent to be exact.

The exit poll’s final result of 43.34 percent for Sen. Benigno Aquino III is only 1.25 percent larger than the final and official score of 42.08 percent, while its final score of 26.38 percent for former president Joseph Estrada is only 0.12 percent larger than the actual score of 26.25 percent.

This means the exit polls slightly oversestimated Aquino’s lead over Estrada by 1.13 percent compared to the actual Aquino-Estrada lead of 15.83 percent.

For vice president, the exit poll showed Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay garnering 42.52 percent of the votes, only 0.87 percent larger than the actual score of 41.65 percent. Its final score of 39.17 percent for Sen. Manuel Roxas II is only 0.41 percent smaller than the actual score of 39.58 percent.

The SWS overestimated Binay’s lead by 1.28 percent. His actual lead was 2.07 percent.

A total of 52,573 voters from 802 sampled voting centers were polled.

In fact, more than half had already decided whom to vote in earlier or February, the survey which polled 35,825 voters found.  Fourteen percent said, however, they made their decision only on election day.

Voters appeared more upbeat than pessimistic about the new government and what’s in store for them in the next 12 months. The quality of governance will be better under the next administration, said 57 percent of voters. About half also said the quality of life will be better (49 percent) and the economy will improve (52 percent) in the next 12 months.

One in two voters also found  voting easier this time, although almost 31 percent said it was more difficult.

For the first time, SWS conducted the exit poll 50 meters away from polling centers instead of in the homes of a random sample as it had done in previous elections. This enabled interviews to be done throughout the day, a practice in developed countries, according to the research organization.

SWS also conducted the exit poll with its regular staff and a special complement of direct hires.  It used to outsource its field and data processing operations until the middle of 2004.

The research organization sought the compulsory counterclaim when it answered Gordon’s petition filed earlier before a Quezon City regional trial court to stop the publication of pre-election surveys of SWS and Pulse Asia.

SWS denied Gordon’s allegation that SWS, “for pecuniary gain and solely for reasons intended to favor their moneyed clients, have published false, fraudulent, biased and defective surveys.”

It branded the senator’s statement as “malicious, and with the sole intention of debasing the reputation of SWS locally and abroad.”

SWS cited a legal precedent that a corporation whose good reputation has been besmirched is entitled to moral damages. It also sought P100,000 in attorney’s fees.

Majority will also decide for themselves rather than be told whom to vote for, believe popular  support rather than political machinery wins the election for a candidate, and will follow their consciences rather than bandwagons, the survey found.

The survey showed that nearly nine of every 10 voters chose to say, “I will vote for a candidate if most will benefit from him/her, even if I myself will not” over “I will vote for a candidate if I will benefit personally from him/her, even if most will not.”

The latest percentage of social-interest answers is higher compared to 79 percent in the research organization’s April 2007 poll.

Eighty-four percent replied that “Most people here decide for themselves whom to vote for,” which is similar to 81 to 85 percent in the 2001 and 2004 pre-election surveys, higher than 79-80 percent in 2007 sruveys, but not as high as 89 percent in the 1998 poll.

Asked to choose between the statements, “A candidate wins due to true popular support, with or without political machinery,” and “The political machinery of a candidate wins the election for him/her,” 78 percen chose popular support and 21 percent chose political machinery.

Given the introductory statement: “There are those who say that one should vote according to one’s conscience, whether or not the candidate would win. There are others who say that a vote for a losing candidate would be wasted, therefore, one should vote for a candidate who leads and would probably win,” 77 percent chose the conscience vote by saying “Vote according to one’s conscience” and 23 percent chose the bandwagon vote by saying “Vote for the one you think will win.”

But a lot of things changed with Sen. Chiz Escudero entered the scene in the Aquino campaign and introduced an Aquino-Binay ticket. Following are results of Social Weather Station’s  final  pre-election survey for the May 10 elections.

Aquino pads poll lead

With the May 10 elections just around the corner, Sen. Benigno Simeon “Noynoy” C. Aquino III has picked up steam to widen his lead in the presidential race, results of the final BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations (BW-SWS) Pre-Election survey showed.

Down to the wire VP race as Binay, Roxas share lead

Makati Mayor Jejomar “Jojo” C. Binay has caught up with Sen. Manuel “Mar” A. Roxas in the vice-presidential race, tying with the former solo frontrunner in the final edition of the BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations (SWS) Pre-Election Survey.

Last Senate slot up for grabs?

Just one slot in the “Magic 12″ senatorial race appears up for dispute, with recognized politicians — most of them incumbents and former senators — bolstering their hold in the rankings, results of the final BusinessWorld-Social Weather Stations (SWS) Pre-Election Survey showed.

Sen.  Miriam Defensor Santiago came next (47.9 percent), followed by incumbent Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (40.6 percent), former Sen.  Franklin Drilon (38.4 percent) and Sen.  Pia Cayetano (38.1 percent).

Several other old faces topped the survey, including former lawmakers Vicente C. Sotto III (32.3 percent), Sergio R. Osmeña (32.2 percent) and Ralph Recto (30.1 percent).

Ilocos Norte Rep. Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., a  first-time senatorial candidate, came in next with 27.7 percent.

Rounding up the top 18 are Teofisto D. Guingona III (23 percent), Sen.  Manuel “Lito” Lapid (21.0 percent), Akbayan Party-List Rep. Ana Theresia H. Hontiveros-Baraquel (20.2 percent),  Jose P. de Venecia III (19.6 percent), lawyer Gwendolyn D. Pimentel (19.2 percent), former Cavite Rep. Gilbert Remulla (18.7 percent), Col.  Ariel O. Querubin (17.5 percent), and Muntinlupa Rep. Ruffy Biazon (17.3 percent).

However, less than half, or only 37 percent, of the registered voters already have a complete senatorial slate during the survey period.   A total of 9.1 percent of the voters, meanwhile, do not “express support for any of those running for senator,” the survey added.

The Pulse Asia survey, conducted from April 23 to 25, has a ± 2  margin of error at  the 95 percent confidence level.

In the same survey, 78 percent of the voters will choose a party-list group in the May polls.

“Among the probable winners in the party-list elections, only two groups would get the maximum number of three congressional seats–Gabriela (7.32 percent) and Akbayan (5.36 percent),” the survey added.– Joseph Holandes Ubalde

FORMER President Joseph  “Erap” Estrada of Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP) has edged out Sen. Manuel Villar Jr. of the  Nacionalista  Party in the No. 2 position in the May 10 presidential race in a survey conducted by the Magdalo, a group of reformist   junior military officers.

The survey conducted  from April 19 to 24 among 3,000 respondents nationwide showed Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino of the Liberal Party   leading the race  with 39.6 percen,t followed by Estrada with 24.8 percent and Villar with 23.6 percent.

This is the first survey that showed Estrada having overtaken Villar. Pulse Asia’s survey conducted April 23 to 25 among 1,800 respondents nationwide showed Villar and Estrada tied in second place with 20 percent each.

The rest of the presidential candidates got single-digit scores.  Gilbert  Teodoro Jr. of Lakas-Kampi-CMD got  7 percent;  Bangon Pilipinas’ Eduardo “Bro Eddie”  Villanueva,  2.6 percent; Richard Gordon, 0.8 percent; Ma. Ana Consuelo “Jamby” Madrigal, 0.2 percent; Ang Kapatiran’s John Carlos “JC” de los Reyes, 0.3 percent; and  Nicanor  “Nick” Perlas, 0.2 percent.

Data for the vice presidential contest will be released later.

For the senatorial race, the top three in the Magic 12 are  reelectionists Ramon “Bong”  Revilla Jr. (56.1 percent),  Miriam  Defensor-Santiago (55.4 percent) and Jinggoy Estrada (53.9 percent).

No. 4  is former Senate President Franklin Drilon (43.9 percent), followed by incumbent Senate president Juan Ponce-Enrile (41.3 percent) and former Sen.  Sergio Osmeña III (37.4 percent).

Another reelectionist, Pia Cayetano, is on 7^th place with 36.3 percent, followed by Ilocos Sur Gov.  Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and former  Sen.  Vicente “Tito” Sotto III.

The two detained military officers made it to the top 12:  Brig. Gen. Danny Lim (32.9 percent) and Col. Ariel Querubin (30.3 percent).

Arroyo’s former economic planning secretary, Ralph Recto, is No. 12  with  26.9 percent.

Within striking distance to the Magic 12 are  reelectionist  Manuel “Lito” Lapid (25.6 percent), Jose “Joey” de Venecia (25 percent), Satur Ocampo (21.4 percent), Teofisto “TG” Guingona III (21.4 percent),  Gilbert Remulla (19 percent), Liza Maza (17.6 percent), Sonia Roco (17.4 percent) and Risa Hontiveros –Baraquel (17.4 percent).

The survey, which has a margin of error of plus and minus two, asked respondents:”If elections were held today, who of the candidates (names provided) would you choose?”

Issues in  the media during the survey period were the alleged pressure of  Villar on the Philippine Securities and Exchange in connection with the stock offering of his real estate company, Vista Land; the  clearing   by Justice Secretary  Alberto Agra of former ARMM  Gov.  Zaldy Ampatuan and his uncle Akmad of murder charges in connection with the Nov. 23 Maguindanao massacre.

The Magdalo, headed by Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, has  endorsed  Villar  for president and LP’s Roxas for vice president for the May 10 elections.

Magdalo pre-election survey on presidential bets
Magdalo pre-election survey on senatorial bets

It said 26 percent plan to watch the counting of votes, 23 percent attend political rallies of candidates and 20 percent serve in organizations that will help in having an orderly and clean election.Other planned activities: be a watcher for a political candidate (15 percent), put up posters for politicians (11 percent), actively campaign for a political candidate (9 percent), and be a member of the Board of Election Inspectors (3 percent).

In SWS’ three pre-election surveys of 2007, to watch vote-counting and to attend political rallies were also the top planned activities at the time.

The poll was conducted from Feb. 24 to 28 using face-to-face interviews of 2,100 registered voters.

While Sen. Manuel Roxas II also still leads in the vice presidential race, Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay has overtaken Sen. Loren Legarda to land in the second spot and is just nine points away from Roxas’ 37 percent lead, according to Pulse Asia.

Pulse Asia’s April 23-25 poll shows 39 percent of registered voters supporting Aquino’s presidential bid. Overall voter preference for both Estrada and Villar stood at 20 percent.

While Aquino leads in the rest of Luzon (37 percent), Metro Manila (39 percent) and the Visayas (47 percent), he has nearly the same percentages as Estrada in Mindanao: 36 percent versus 34 percent.

The polling firm reported a significant decline in voter preference—5 points—for Villar from its March survey.

Roxas himself experienced a 6- point drop since the March poll but still has 37 percent of registered voters supporting his candidacy. As a result, he leads Binay only by nine points. Legarda now ranks third, enjoying the support of 20 percent of voters, slightly lower than the 23 percent she got in March.

While Roxas is the leading candidate in Mindanao (38 percent) and the Visayas (44 percent), he and Binay enjoy practically the same voter preferences in Metro Manila (34 percent versus 38 percent) and the rest of Luzon (34 percent versus 29 percent).

Roxas also enjoys the support of Class ABC (55 percent), but almost the same percentages of those in Class D support either Roxas or Binay (36 percent versus 30 percent). Three candidates have the support of about the same percentages of those in Class E: Roxas (32 percent), Binay (27 percent) and Legarda (24 percent).

Pulse Asia cited key developments at the time it conducted the survey:

• Defections from the Lakas-Kampi Christian Muslim Democrats, mostly to the Nacionalista Party and the Liberal Party
• Election-related issues such as the purchase of ultraviolet lamps because the UV readers of the Precinct Count Optical Scan machines were unable to read the UV markings on the ballots, the scrapping of the P700 million contract for the purchase of ballot secrecy folders, and the rebidding of the contract for the purchase of indelible ink
• Completion of the printing of ballots for the May 2010 elections
• Various incidents of election-related violence across the country
• Sen. Francis G. Escudero’s endorsement of Aquino for president and Binay for vice-presidentA
• ccusations made by Estrada and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile against Villar that Villar used his position as Senate president to pressure the Philippine Stock Exchange to decide in his favor on a matter concerning the public offering of his real estate company’s shares
• Sen. Richard J. Gordon’s filing of charges against two survey groups
• Petitions from various sectors for a parallel manual count of votes
• The Supreme Court’s final ruling allowing President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to appoint the next chief justice (but not the next Sandiganbayan justice)
• Calls for the resignation and disbarment of Acting Justice Secretary Alberto Agra following his decision to clear two key suspects in the Maguindanao massacre
• Increase in power rates despite rotating brownouts in Metro Manila and other parts of the country