FOURTEEN senatorial candidates led by incumbent senators Ramon Revilla Jr., Jinggoy Estrada and Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago stand a statistical chance of winning if elections were held now, according to Pulse Asia.
Revilla, Estrada and Santiago are in fact statistically tied for first place, the February 2010 pre-election survey showed.
Revilla’s overall voter preference of 53.6 percent translates to a statistical ranking of first to third place, which he shares with Estrada (52.6 percent). Santiago (49.4 percent) also has a chance at the top slot as she ranks first to fifth.
Not far behind Santos is Sen. Pia Cayetano (45.4 percent), who is ranked third to sixth, a statistical ranking she in turn shares with former Senate President Franklin M. Drilon (45 percent). In sixth place is incumbent Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (43.8 percent) with a statistical ranking of fourth to sixth.
Trailing Drilon by 10 percentage points, former Sen. Vicente Sotto III (33.2 percent), former senator and former National Economic and Development Authority Director General Ralph Recto (33.1 percent), former Senator Sergio Osmeña III (29.1 percent), Ilocos Norte Rep. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (28.2 percent), Sen. Manuel Lapid (25.8 percent), Bukidnon Rep. Teofisto Guingona III (24.3 percent), businessman Jose De Venecia III (23.5 percent) and Muntinlupa Rep. Rozzano Rufino Biazon (22.7 percent) complete the list of likely senatorial winners.
Of these candidates, Sotto, Recto, Osmeña and Marcos would have joined the winning circle of 12 senators if the elections were held at the time of the survey. Their poorest possible showing is ninth place for the first two former senators, 11th for Osmeña and 12th for Marcos. The bids of Lapid, Guingona, De Venecia and Biazon are more vulnerable as they could land outside of the winning circle, their worst statistical ranking being in the range of 14th to 16th.
Among the probable winners, Santiago registers the biggest improvement in voter support (8.2 points) since the January survey. Also registering significant improvements in voter preferences are independent candidate Gwendolyn “Gwen” D. Pimentel (11.4 points), former Cavite Rep. Gilbert Cesar C. Remulla (10.5 points) and Akbayan party-list Rep. Ana Theresia Hontiveros-Baraquel (5.8 points). The only candidate posting a significant decline in voter support is Alexander Lacson (10.9 points).