PULSE Asia’s score card based on their Jan. 22 – 26 nationawide survey among 1,800 respondents with a +/-2 margin.
The top 12:
1. Bong Revilla
2. Jinggoy Estrada
3. Pia Cayetano
4. Frank Drilon
5. Miriam Santiago
6. Juan Ponce Enrile
7. Ralph Recto
8. Serge Osmeña
9. Tito Sotto
10. Lito Lapid
11. Bongbong Marcos
12. Joey de Venecia
Currently leading the senatorial race is Senator Revilla whose overall voter preference of 51.9 percent translates to a statistical ranking of 1st to 2nd places, putting him in a virtual tie with Senator Estrada (50.4 percent ), who is ranked 1st to 3rd. Meanwhile, Senator Pilar Juliana S. Cayetano (46.8 percent ) is ranked 2nd to 4th, slightly ahead of former Senate President Franklin M. Drilon (43.2 percent ) who ranks 3rd to 6th. Tied from 4th to 6th places are Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago (41.2 percent ) and incumbent Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile (39.7 percent ).
Completing the list of probable winners are former National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Director General Ralph G. Recto (34.4 percent ), former Senators Sergio R. Osmeña III (31.6 percent ) and Vicente C. Sotto III (30.5 percent ), Senator Manuel M. Lapid (29.7 percent ), Ilocos Norte Representative Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. (26.3 percent ), and Mr. Jose P. de Venecia III (24 percent ).
Within striking distance of a senatorial seat are Muntinlupa Representative Rozzano Rufino B. Biazon (19.8 percent ), Bukidnon Representative Teofisto D. Guingona III (19.7 percent ), and Atty. Alexander L. Lacson (19.1 percent ) – all of whom are ranked 13th to 15th. Atty. Lacson, contrary to previous trends in pre-election voting preferences, is practically making it despite a very low awareness level (33 percent ). In the meantime, about one in ten Filipinos (10.9 percent ) does not express support for any of the senatorial candidates for the May 2010 elections – much higher than the December 2009 figure (3.4 percent ), possibly due to the use of a sample ballot listing 62 names for the senatorial race.
Only two senatorial candidates enjoy improvements in their voter preference during the period December 2009 and January 2010 – Senator Lapid (+6.6 percentage points) and AKBAYAN Party List Representative Anna Theresia H. Hontiveros-Baraquel (+6.2 percentage points).
The latter, who is currently ranked 17th to 25th with an overall voter preference of 11.0 percent , appears to have benefited much from being included in this survey with the addition of “Hontiveros” to her proffered name, an electoral privilege she had to gain from the COMELEC.
In contrast, support levels for several senatorial candidates decline during this period, with the biggest drop being recorded by Senator Defensor-Santiago (-10.2 percentage points), possibly due to the use of a sample ballot. The others who experience a decline in voter preference between December 2009 and January 2010 are former Senate President Drilon (-5.2 percentage points), former Senator Francisco S. Tatad (-6.5 percentage points), Atty. Gwendolyn D. Pimentel (-6.5 percentage points), former Senator Osmeña (-8.6 percentage points), former NEDA Director General Recto (-8.7 percentage points), Bukidnon Representative Guingona (-8.8 percentage points), and former Senator Sotto (-9.7 percentage points).
Several changes in statistical ranking are also recorded between December 2009 and January 2010. Among the probable winners, Senator Lapid registers the biggest improvement as he now ranks 8th to 11th, up from 12th to 14th in January 2010. The others whose statistical ranking improve during this period are Senator Revilla (from 1st-4th to 1st-2nd), Senator Cayetano (from 5th-9th to 2nd-4th), Senate President Enrile (from 5th-9th to 4th-6th), and Mr. de Venecia (from 12th-14th to 11th-12th). On the other hand, the most pronounced decline in statistical ranking is recorded by Senator Defensor-Santiago – from 1st to 4th in December 2009 to 4th to 6th at present. Additionally, the statistical rankings of the following also decline during this period – former Senate President Drilon (from 2nd-4th to 3rd-6th), former NEDA Director-General Recto (from 5th-9th to 7th-9th), and former Senators Osmeña and Sotto (from 5th-9th to 7th-10th).