By ELLEN T. TORDESILLAS
IF Pres. Aquino believes the strategy that if Mar Roxas’ lawyers in Comelec succeeds in eliminating Grace Poe from the presidential race, the presidency would be an easy clinch for his anointed, he is dreaming.
If the fight is three-way – Rodrigo Duterte, Jojo Binay and Roxas, Duterte will win.
If it’s between Binay and Roxas, Binay will win.
If it’s between Duterte and Roxas, Duterte will win.
He should take a look at the latest nationwide survey by the Magdalo Group conducted last Dec. 9- 11 among 2,914 respondents. It has a margin of error of 1.8 percent.
The Magdalo group has been conducting surveys since the first senatorial run of its leader, Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, in 2007. The survey is designed and supervised by Trillanes’ chief-of-staff , Asian Institute of Management alumnus Rolando “Oyie” Averilla.
Duterte topped the survey with 31.9 percent while Poe, who previously topnotcher scored 26 percent.
They survey took place after the Comelec’s second division decided to disqualify Poe on the issue of 10-year residency requirement for president. The last day of the survey was when the Comelec’s first division decided to cancel Poe’s certificate of candidacy.
Without doubt Comelec’s decision adversely affected Poe’s campaign. Many believe she is now out of the race. In her public meetings now, she spends a lot of time explaining that she is still a candidate and her legal team has brought the issue to the Supreme Court where they believe they have a better chance to get justice than in the Roxas’ lawyers- dominated Comelec.
It was also after Duterte’s cursing of Pope Francis which generated a lot of negative reactions including from the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines’ president Archbishop Socrates Villegas.
Following Duterte and Poe were Vice President Jejomar Binay with 23.6 percent; former DILG Secretary Mar Roxas with 13.5 percent; Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago with 4 percent; and former Ambassador Roy Señeres with 0.1 percent.
Binay’s survey ratings seem to be in a plateau between 20 and 25 per cent after a plunge during the Senate investigation irregularities in Makati city government transactions and questions about sources of his wealth. Could this be his core supporters?
That means he cannot go lower than his present reduced rating which is still much higher than Roxas’.
If a plunder case filed against him would be filed at the Sandiganbayan and he would be jailed without bail, he can continue his candidacy as long as he is not convicted.
The Aquino government’s only hope to eliminate Binay is for the Ombudsman, in an administrative case against him decides to perpetually disqualify him from public office just like what happened to his son, former Makati mayor Junjun Binay.
If that happens, Roxas then would have to reckon with Duterte, whose candidacy has been accepted by the Comelec.
It will then be a Duterte presidency in 2016. Oh, God.
It is interesting to note in the Magdalo survey by religion, Duterte was number one among Roman Catholics despite cursing Pope Francis. He was also the favorite choice of Born Again Christians and Protestants, Islam and other religions.
He is not the top choice of the Iglesia ni Cristo who preferred Poe and Binay.
Another interesting insight in the survey was Duterte as the choice of voters in age brackets 18 to 29, 30 to 39, and 40-59. It’s only among the 60 to 90 that Poe scored higher than him. Is it still the FPJ memories?
Not surprisingly in the survey by gender, Duterte scored high among males: 35.8 percent as against Poe’s 24.2 percent, Binay’s 23.4, and Roxas’ 12.2. Among females, it’s a tie between Duterte (28.3 percent) and Poe (27.7 percent). Binay got 23.7 percent while Roxas, 14.7 percent.
Congressman Francisco Ashley Acedillo, Magdalo party list representative, said,“One of the observations during the survey is that a significant number of respondents presumed that Senator Poe was already disqualified in running for President, or were asking if she was already disqualified. Since our researchers are not allowed to engage with the respondents to avoid influencing their answers, this issue was not clarified to them.”
Acedillo said, “We expect these figures and the candidates’ ranking will continue to notably change, especially when the COMELEC en banc and the Supreme Court, eventually, will release their decision on Sen. Poe’s and Mayor Duterte’s candidacy.”
Magdalo is supporting Poe’s presidential bid. Magdalo member Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV is running for vice-president as an independent candidate and carries Poe as his president.
