China’s President Xi Jinping welcomes President Duterte during the latter’s state visit in October 2016. Malacañang photo.
China is unfazed by President Duterte’s announcement that he will be raising the 2016 ruling of the Arbitral Court nullifying China’s all-encompassing nine dash line that encroaches on the economic exclusive zone of other countries in South East Asia including the Philippines with Chinese President Xi Jinping when they meet in Beijing end of this month before he proceeds to Foshan, Guandong to attend the International Basketball Federation (FIBA).
In an interview with reporters Friday, Zhao underscored China’s consistent position before and after the decision of the Arbitral Court that favoured the Philippine position.” We expressed that we will not accept it and we will not recognize it. And that position has not changed, and will not be changed.”
Last week Duterte announced before members of the Federation of Filipino-Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry that he was going to China. “Did I not tell you before, that before my term ends, I will be talking about the [South] China Sea?”
The announcement is a marked departure from the position of not displeasing China he articulated when the decision came out in July 2016. He justified it as part of his policy to improve relations with China, which was severely damaged during the administration of President Benigno Aquino III.
Duterte had ignored criticisms of what many see as defeatist and subservient position towards China and many are wondering why the change of tune?
The easy attribution is the public overwhelming sentiment as surveyed by the Social Weather Stations that 93 percent or 9 in 10 of adult Filipinos said it is important for the Philippines to regain control of China-occupied islands in the disputed area of the Spratlys in the South China Sea.
The same survey showed that 51 percent of Filipinos had little trust in China. Twenty-seven percent percent had much trust while 21 percent were undecided for a net trust of -24.
However, the same survey showed that 80 percent of adult Filipinos are satisfied with Duterte’s performance with only 12 percent dissatisfied for a net satisfaction score of +68.
With an overwhelming popularity, Duterte is not known to be receptive to criticism. He has been resolute in pushing his perverted narrative that insisting on the Philippine claim would lead to war with China.
It’s hard to imagine that public opinion alone would make him stand up to Xi now.
Some say that Duterte has been told of rumblings in the military who feel they have had enough of the Chinese blatant violation of Philippine laws. They feel, a source in the military said, that they have been rendered inutile in effectively performing their constitutional mandate to uphold the sovereignty and preserve the patrimony of the Republic of the Philippines.
This talk gets credence with the recent public statements of National Security Adviser Hermogenes Esperon adding to the voice of Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana complaining about China’s bullying in the West Philippine Sea.
Esperon now talks what has long been the concern of many: the influx of Chinese workers in the Philippines, most of them operating online gambling. He said that the issue of the huge number of Chinese workers in the country has become a national security concern.
What’s behind the change in tune towards China? Did Duterte experience an epiphany?
We don’t believe Duterte has really changed his position towards China. What we see is Duterte misjudging China, who sees him as an immature leader that cannot be fully trusted. Sure, they dangle all the pledges of multi-billion support for infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative. But they are not delivering.
One of his pet infrastructure projects, the massive Mindanao Railway Project that will run through the Davao Region which was initially under the BRI will now be funded by the government.
This is the more likely reason.
We see Duterte’s announcement of raising the issue of the Arbitral Court decision with Xi now as just a tantrum for not getting the lollipop that was dangled to him. China knows how to humor unstable autocrats like him.