By ELLEN TORDESILLAS
I THINK President Aquino will have the numbers to convict Supreme Court Justice Renato Corona regardless of whether the prosecution will be able to support the charges they enumerated in the impeachment complaint.
In a TV interview, Sen. Francis Escudero said it is the presentation of witnesses and evidence, not public opinion, which should decide the outcome of the impeachment trial of Corona.
Even Sen. Francis Pangilinan, who had earlier asked Corona to inhibit on cases involving Gloria Arroyo, also said that the quality evidence will be the determining factor in his decision.
Of course, we don’t have to believe these senators. In fact, to enjoy the Corona impeachment trial, we would have to learn not to take them too seriously and make sure to watch the live coverage with an ample dose of sense of humor.
Evidence would be the least of the senators’ consideration in deciding whether to convict or acquit Corona.
The prosecution needs 16 (two- thirds of 23 senators) votes to convict Corona, who needs only eight votes to block the conviction.
Let’s do a head count.
As of now, the only vote that Corona can be sure of is by Sen. Joker Arroyo.
There’s a high possibility that Sen. Ferdinand “Bong bong” Marcos, Jr. would vote to acquit Corona. He is not running for re-election next year. He would be able to recover from whatever backlash is expected from the anti-Arroyo, anti-Corona mob by 2016 when he will either be running for re-election or make a presidential bid.
Among those that Malacañang can depend on to convict Corona are eight senators: Franklin Drilon, Pangilinan, Ralph Recto, Panfilo Lacson,Sergio Osmeña III, Teofisto Guingona, III., Aquilino Pimentel III, and Antonio Trillanes IV.
Thirteen senators are “question marks” . They are Senate President Juan Ponce-Enrile who has strong influence on Gregorio Honasan, Jinggoy Estrada, and Tito Sotto; the Nacionalista Party bloc – Manny Villar, Pia Cayetano, and Alan Cayetano; Edgardo Angara and Loren Legarda.
Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr and Lito Lapid belong to Arroyo’s Lakas Party but these two don’t have strong convictions on issues. With the right incentives, the two can be convinced to follow Manuel L. Quezon’s line of ending their loyalty to their party and put the country’s interest first.
The question many ask about Miriam Santiago is, “Will Aquino’s support in her election to the International Criminal Court” make her vote for the conviction of Corona.
Escudero is an ally of Aquino but he supported Jejomar Binay for vice president. The Corona impeachment is seen as an initiative of “The Firm” where former Arroyo Defense Secretary Avelino “Nonong” Cruz belongs.
Cruz is identified with the camp of Transportation and Communication Secretary Mar Roxas, who lost to Binay in the vice presidential race last election. (Roxas has a pending protest against Binay’s election.)
There are also talks that Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, formerly of The Firm, would be named chief justice if Corona is convicted. It’s easy to imagine that Escudero would not fancy having someone identified with Roxas camp replace Corona.
The Carpio factor, on the other hand, could persuade Angara, who is sympathetic to Arroyo, to vote for the conviction of Corona. Angara and Carpio both to the Sigma Rho fraternity of the University of the Philippines College. So is Enrile.
They say that fraternity brods are closer than real brothers.
Political kingmaker Manuel Zamora, who supported Villar’s presidential in the last election, is also a Sigma Rho. Manny Zamora, whose brother Buddy is close to Roxas, might be persuaded to use his influence on Villar and the two Cayetanos to vote to oust Corona.
That is if Corona does not resign with all the dirt being dug up against him and his wife.
(The article was posted on Jan. 5 in the author’s blog.)
