Communication specialist JoseBayani Baylon, is a keen observer of Philippine politics. He will be sharing with VERA Files readers his reading of political movements, obvious and not-so-obvious leading up to the election in May 2022.
Of all the declared candidates for President – as of this writing at least – I am most interested on two – Vice President Leni Robredo, and Manila Mayor Francisco Domagoso. Early on I thought one (Robredo) would give way to the other, hearing so much talk that the VP was really inclined to run for a local office in Camarines Sur. But then, when it began to seem more likely that she would run, it appeared to me that a Robredo-Domagoso team-up would be a good one, one that would bridge geographical and generational divides.
Oh – social class divides too, with Mayor Isko representing the millionaires of the middle class and VP Leni the folks on the “laylayan” of society.
But then that union did not happen; they are now both running and it is in some respects understandable why – but I am not so sure if that’s good for either of them.
Mayor Isko, from my perspective, became an early rallying point for many of those who were getting impatient with VP Leni as she could not (it seems) make up her mind on whether she would go local or national. These folks who were waiting for Leni were getting desperate – the idea of a “Daughterte” administration (credit to the creative mind who coined that) or a Marcos Redux was driving them up the wall, and as one of them said to me, “If the VP doesn’t run we will go with Isko because he seems best positioned to defeat the Dutertes”.
Close to the filing deadline VP Leni did decide to file – and a significant segment of the anti-Duterte voting population finally had the rallying point they were looking for.
But now there are new complications for both.
First, those who early on went with Mayor Isko began to hesitate: should they stay or should they move? Those for whom “winnability” is important keep looking at survey results, and justify their staying – Mayor Isko remains third in most surveys while the VP, though showing some positive movement lately, is still usually fourth or fifth. Of course taking top rankings are Davao Mayor Sara and former Senator Bongbong Marcos.
But some have decided to switch, including 2019 senatorial candidates and former Solicitor General Pilo Hilbay.
Second, Mayor Isko started to look far less attractive to the anti-Duterte voters after he seemed to soften on the President in his public remarks. He compounded this by remarking that the Marcos issue was something we as a country needed to put behind us, saying something to the effect that the Philippines has been wracked by the Marcos-Aquino rivalry but where has it left the majority of the people? No matter how rational that observation sounds, it is a totally unacceptable point of view to those who believe that the Marcoses have not been fully taken to task for the excesses of the Marcos years, mainly from 1972-1986. And this segment of the population is represented by the “Dilawan” as they are called in reference to the color that Cory Aquino and then son Benigno Jr used during their presidential campaigns.
This color, however, is both an advantage and a burden to the VP especially at a time when a generation of voters are as clueless about the Marcos years as my generation was about the Japanese occupation, also a sore and emotional point for a generation ahead of mine. And maybe in recognition of this, VP Leni chose to use the color pink and filed as an independent – despite being the head of the Liberal Party, which is THE yellow party.
Now is that a clear intention to distance her campaign from the tag “Dilaw”?
On the other hand, Mayor Isko has decided to run for President after only three years as Manila Mayor. Unlike a Binay or a Duterte, an Erap or even a Gordon, Mayor Isko (in my book) still does not have the track record to point to as Mayor of his city to represent what he is capable of doing as President. And that’s why he is obviously focusing on the romantic notion of a poor boy who has done well, rising through sheer hard work to middle class status with a P70 million net worth. This effectively hides a potential charge – that he is still “Hilaw” for the Presidency, opening him up to the charge that he is “so young and so…” ambitious (???).
Interestingly this morning my barber Serge asked me who among the candidates I was considering. I told him I was actually writing a piece on the VP and the Manila Mayor. In Filipino he says “they’re also the candidates I am looking at, sir!”, but he had an interesting additional comment.
“I wish they would just run as a team, with Mayor Isko as VP. He is too impatient. He is still young anyway.”(Actually the remark sounded much better in Filipino.
In my mind I wanted to say that maybe he was just being given a choice now: Dilaw or Hilaw?
Which may (or may not) be better than “Dilaw at Hilaw”.
