A graphic card predicting the impending arrival of “The Big One,” an earthquake that will supposedly devastate the entire Luzon island, is currently making the rounds on Facebook. It is fake and fear-mongering.
Claims of The Big One’s arrival date are not new and have been debunked several times in the past.
There is currently no reliable technology in the world that can accurately predict the exact date, time and location where a large earthquake will occur, said the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) on April 4.
The fear-mongering claim received renewed attention when, from May 29 onwards, several religious interest Facebook pages and groups spread graphic cards with the following text:
“Opisyal na babala! Tatama na ang ‘The Big One’ at wawasakin ang buong isla ng Luzon! Isang lindol na may lakas na 8.2 magnitude ay malapit nang mangyari! Huwag kang magpanggap na parang hindi mo ito nakita. Ang kamatayan ay tumatama sa lahat ng pamilya. Kung sa tingin mo ay pinoprotektahan ka ng Diyos, bigyan Siya ng papuri.”
(Official warning! ‘The Big One’ is about to hit and destroy the entire island of Luzon! An 8.2 magnitude earthquake will soon happen. Don’t pretend that you didn’t see this. Death comes upon every family. If you think God is protecting you, give Him praise.)
Among those that posted the fake announcement are local FB pages God is good (130k reactions and 7.1k shares), The Last Days, Age of the Kingdom (256 reactions), and the account Ang pagtubos ni Jesus (64 reactions).
What is ‘The Big One’?
According to geologist Jeffrey Perez, in a PHIVOLCS broadcast on April 2, the Big One is a media term used to refer to a “worst-case earthquake scenario in the Greater Metro Manila Area.”
He clarified that there could be several Big Ones, not just in Metro Manila, because worst-case earthquake scenarios may happen in other regions of the country.
The Metro Manila Big One refers to an earthquake scenario that may happen once the West Valley Fault moves. The 100-kilometer West Valley Fault runs through several cities and towns in Bulacan, Rizal, Metro Manila, Cavite, and Laguna. The PHIVOLCS’ forecast is that it may have a magnitude of 7.2, and based on historical data, may happen within this generation or the next.
The West Valley Fault moves approximately every 400 to 600 years. The last major earthquake happened 367 years ago in 1658.
