He had gone to Hongkong for a rally dubbed “Pasasalamat kay PRRD.” But his departure appeared to be a hasty one. He was seen taking his plane seat in economy instead of business class. The flight was scheduled in the early morning of March 7 at 7:30, an unholy hour for the night owl Rodrigo Duterte. The plane was a Cathay Pacific instead of a Philippine flag carrier.
It confirms speculations that his trip was motivated by a leak fed to him by his PNP loyalists that a dry run of his arrest was about to take place. True enough, the dry run happened on Sunday March 9 while he was in Hongkong.
Was he attempting to evade an arrest warrant of the Interpol? So fluid and untenable were the speculations that the real stories are said to be forthcoming yet within this week. Many were in tentative jubilation that the International Criminal Court (ICC) had finally moved. After all, it has been four long years of waiting for justice for the thousands murdered by police under Duterte’s state-sponsored killing sprees.
Early Monday March 10, a national daily reported that the Interpol had finally issued a Red Notice for the arrest of Duterte. Yet so staggered was the release of such information that the same could not be found in the official Interpol website. The news report cited “unimpeachable sources.”
Nonetheless, the grim reality now awaits Duterte, that he is shortly going to be arrested for the complaints lodged against him in the ICC for crimes against humanity. Among the many Filipinos who had opposed his extrajudicial killings, the euphoria is palpable.
But where will he be arrested — in China or in the Philippines? As we write, Davao city’s Francisco Bangoy airport is teeming with troops of policemen in battle gear who appear to be preparing for his arrest once he gets home from Hongkong.
But what if he doesn’t get home and chooses to live the life of an exile in China?
That scenario begins with a reality check. China was not a state party to the Rome Statute that created the ICC. As such, it is not a member of the ICC. However, it is a member of the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol).
Nevertheless, various opinions are not hopeful about a China arrest of Duterte. He is Xi Jin Ping’s No. 1 acolyte in Southeast Asia. Duterte is China’s Exhibit A of how it is to kowtow to Chinese interests and keep quiet about its hegemonic 9-dash line. Even as an ex-president, Duterte was extended a cordial welcome by Xi for a dialogue meeting at the Diaoyutai State Guest House on July 2023.
In the minds of many Filipinos, it is not just that the West Philippine Sea is real. It is that Duterte is a traitor who has even allowed the Chinese underworld to conduct business in the Philippines. China is the most hated country in the world by Filipinos, thanks to Duterte.
A reward then from Xi will not be farfetched. Xi can consider granting him political asylum in China. If that happens, Duterte will be a fugitive from law and will likely die there. He turns 80 this March 28. He can extend his life like Juan Ponce Enrile’s by availing himself of stem cell treatment charged to Comrade Xi. Yet death will eventually conquer as it does to all.
At the same time, he will also be a thorn on Xi’s side. International opinion will not be kind. Xi will be seen as breaching his country’s agreement with the Interpol. In fact, the People’s Republic of China has had a good record of sorts with Interpol in battling transnational organized crime in China.
As an Interpol member country, it maintains a National Central Bureau in Beijing that the Xi government keeps as part of the International Cooperation Department of its Ministry of Public Security. All member countries of the Interpol adhere to having a National Central Bureau. We have one within the PNP in Camp Crame.
Without fear or favor then, the Interpol can certainly issue its Red Notice for Duterte to the Chinese government and expects that it be honored. It cannot be seen to renege on its mandated duty. If Xi does not honor it, it will create tensions with the Interpol with which it has cooperated.
Despite the autocracy of the Xi dictatorship, it will have to consider the realpolitik of harboring an international fugitive in its midst. The possibility of Duterte getting arrested in China is not remote.
If he decides to come home to the Philippines, a 7,000-strong combined police and military special force has now been deployed in Manila, Davao city, and in the country’s major ports of entry. His arrest in the Philippines is no doubt in the works.
After his inevitable arrest, it will just be a question of how soon the government will hand him over to the ICC. As an ICC suspect, its rules dictate that he will be confined in Scheveningen Prison in The Hague. He will be comfortable there as photos of Scheveningen attest that it is the exact opposite of dirty and decrepit New Bilibid.
The ICC does not try its accused in absentia. No physical presence, no trial. Once Duterte is imprisoned there, his trial will effectively begin. It will also set the dominos to fall – his other co-accused such as Bato dela Rosa, Bong Go, Sara Duterte and other police generals named in the complaints, to be arrested as well on staggered basis. For sure, they too will be arrested. The two senators Go and Dela Rosa can be removed from office.
At last, it will also allow the complaints’ principal witnesses, the former Davao Death Squad assassins Arturo Lascañas, Edgar Matobato, and others to personally testify and be interpellated by Duterte’s lawyers. Duterte will see them face-to-face to enable him to refute their testimonies. He will have his day in court and he will not be tokhanged for it.
Eventually, the families of Lascañas and Matobato can come home to the Philippines and savor the love and presence of their families.
If convicted, Duterte will face 30 years to life imprisonment in the Netherlands. His defense lawyers can appeal the verdict. It will be a privilege that he himself had not granted to those he prosecuted in Davao city using planted evidence.
And the ICC judges can also order reparations for the drug war victims. This last one is the most important justice we seek.
The views in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of VERA Files.
