One of the most essential factors that provided the stability and reliability of American commitments to the numerous alliances that they have worldwide was to assure that all countries with such military relationships with the United States were assured of equal ironclad guarantees. The past tense is being used here since the United States under Donald Trump has effectively trashed that concept by becoming hostile to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and in seeing the Europe Union (EU) in very adversarial terms.
It is crucial for every country that has an alliance with the United States to take into consideration and not dismiss what Trump has done against the Europeans. Why so? This is because the U.S. and the Western European alliance was the yardstick upon which all other military relationships were measured. That is why there is the category known as the Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) that the U.S. bestows on any other ally that it wishes to elevate to the position that its European allies enjoyed with it. The Philippines was elevated into that MNNA category by the U.S. in 2003 during the War on Terror and as part of the Americans’ attempts to shore up additional support for their controversial war against Iraq. MNNA status provided the Philippines with access to additional materiel benefits, more activities between the Armed Forces of the Philippines and the U.S. military, and support for Manila in facing off against Chinese territorial aggression in the West Philippine Sea. With Trump taking a massive dump on NATO, one then wonders what then is the Philippine status with the U.S. and how then can Manila assure itself that it won’t be next on the list? Unfortunately given the mercurial and transactional nature of Trump, that will be difficult to determine.
Trump’s aversion to democracy
The Philippines cannot assume that stepping up its activities and operations in the West Philippine Sea and investing heavily in the military modernization program will assure a constant favorable response from the U.S. This is because in three years of war in Ukraine, Europeans countries have indeed adopted policies increasing their military capabilities and in providing the bulk of support to Kiev and yet this has not brought the Americans to desist in demonizing and belittling NATO and the EU. Worse is that it appears that the Trump regime is not guided by sound strategic concepts in the formulation of its policies in Europe, but by very transactional objectives and ultra conservative doctrine best exemplified by the MAGA movement’s obsession with the conspiracy theory of the Fall of Western Civilization with Europe as its alleged first victim.
However, that is not only the concern that the Philippines has with the U.S. The year 2025 marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two and the victory of the Allied powers against the fascist Axis Powers. A shared heritage that both the Philippines has with the U.S. is the adherence to democratic principles of governance. Ironic since as Filipinos now fight tooth and nail to preserve democracy and the existing democratic space despite challenges from populism, Americans on the other hand, particularly the MAGA movement are showing an affinity for totalitarian rule and loudly trumpet that the U.S. is not a democracy. The abdication by the U.S. Congress of its power of oversight, and the permissive attitude of the U.S. Supreme Court with the regime, has allowed Trump to override civil rights and due process especially in his anti-immigration campaign, and use of the U.S. military both internally and externally.
There has been considerable pushback in the U.S. to what Trump has been doing and there are fears that this may deteriorate into civil strife at the very least and civil war in the future at the very most. Both are very worrisome for the Philippines since these can lead to the Americans becoming distracted by internal security troubles thus providing an opportunity for troublemakers like China to undertake unilateral actions in the regions they hope to control and influence. A troubled U.S. might be amenable to cede spheres of influences to peer competitors to the detriment of its allies there just to avoid American resources from being overstretched at home and abroad. In fact, right now, the U.S. is not yet undergoing that and here it is practically ceding Ukraine and European interests to Vladimir Putin just so that American businesses may exploit opportunities in Russia and Russian occupied Ukrainian territories. The Americans at one point were even forcing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to give up land that has not even been conquered by the Russians since Trump appears to want to write off Ukraine in his mind.
To make the situation worse, unilateral U.S. military action against Venezuelan targets in Central America that are being seen by many legal experts as tantamount to violations of due process and war crimes especially that concerning the killing of two civilians who were hors de combat (out of the fight) as they survived the initial strike and were clinging to the wreckage drifting in the sea only encourages lawless action internationally by other states. That Trump and self-styled Lord of War Pete Hegseth, justified the second strike against the survivors, while some Republican legislators practically lied through their teeth that the two civilians constituted some form of existential threat to the U.S. that warranted their evisceration, provides the very template for which other states can defend their own illegal and outrageous actions.
Take for example the Chinese physical harassment of Filipino fishermen at Escoda (Sabina) Shoal well within the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone last Dec.13, wherein Beijing falsely claimed that the Filipinos in flimsy wooden outriggers were brandishing long knives and provoking the Chinese Coast Guard personnel who themselves were aboard heavily armed huge steel vessels that were illegally patrolling an EEZ that did not belong to China. What difference does the Chinese falsehood have with the American falsehood? There is none and that there is the problem as it removes the U.S. as a moral compass in the international rules- based order that is steadily under siege by Russia and China.
2025 U.S. National Security Strategy
Now, for most of 2025, there was still this room for doubt pertaining to American intentions under Trump when it came to alliances and strategic direction. One could entertain the thought that this was temporary just as Trump was known to reverse himself thus earning the nickname TACO or Trump Always Chickens Out. Unfortunately, the recent release of the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy only served to firmly reinforce all the doubts as the document codified and spelled out all the worrisome directions that the Americans are to take under Trump. That this American national security document did not sit well with the Europeans would easily spell trouble in the years to come between the two sides instead of closer cooperation due to the threat of Russia. Even before the document was released, two European countries, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands decided to rethink their intelligence coordination and sharing with the U.S. The UK decided to scale back intelligence sharing in the Caribbean because of the controversial boat strikes being done by the U.S. military of which the British do not want to be a part of. The Netherlands is convinced that the U.S. is so compromised by Russia that sharing intelligence will only lead to Moscow finding out NATO security secrets. Now that the U.S. has openly declared in their 2025 NSS that part of their objectives is to regime change European member states who do not share the MAGA worldview, there will be more distrust in Europe for Americans. Not to mention that it was already bad enough that the U.S. had earlier threatened two of its closest allies, Canada and Denmark, with the annexation of their territories.
Then there is the revival of the 19th century era Monroe Doctrine wherein the U.S. stated in the NSS that:
After years of neglect, the United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, and to protect our homeland and our access to key geographies throughout the region. We will deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets, in our Hemisphere.
Is a Trump quid pro quo with China possible?
So, what is the problem with that? The problem is that with the Americans openly broadcasting to the world with not even a pretense of diplomatic language that they intend to reestablish a sphere of influence in Central and South America that will serve their interests alone, this only encourages both Russia and China to exploit the situation to serve and legitimize the creation of their own spheres of influence in their respective geographical areas. China can strike agreements with the U.S. that it will not involve itself in any opposition to the Americans in Central and South America in exchange for concessions in Asia. The NSS already seems to recognize a Russian sphere of influence in Central and Eastern Europe that the Americans stated in it of: “Ending the perception, and preventing the reality, of NATO as a perpetually expanding alliance.” To which the Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov reacted by saying: “The adjustments we’re seeing… are largely consistent with our vision.” Hence if Russia can be accommodated by Trump, what will stop the Chinese from ironing out a territorial deal with as the U.S. Department of State so eloquently put it, “The greatest dealmaker in the world,” as it described Trump? Perhaps at this very moment the Chinese are already crafting a peace prize trophy and medallion to give to Trump should that ever happen.
This is why it is suspect as to why the U.S. is cajoling both the Europeans and the Asians to build up their respective defense capabilities and take charge of the security issues in their own region. Earlier on, before Trump, the reason was to complement the U.S. forces that stood shoulder to shoulder with its allies and lessen the burden on the Americans. Nowadays the reason appears more to be that the U.S. under Trump wants to do its own thing such as business opportunities with countries like Russia and eventually with China regardless of what America’s allies and the international community thinks. So, despite the NSS boasting that the U.S. possesses “A broad network of alliances, with treaty allies and partners in the world’s most strategically important regions,” the Americans under Trump appear to be doing their best to undermine and dismantle that very global alliance system that took almost a century to build. It is an America First Über Alles.
Where does that then leave the Philippines? Ironically, when the Philippine government finally got its act together as it oversees an international effort to push back against China, and implements an honest to goodness military modernization program that puts the AFP right into the 21st century, the U.S. chooses this time to spit on its own alliance system and participates with rogue nations in upending the international rules- based order.
Is it something to be worried about? Of course, Filipinos should always worry about their American ally, especially when it is run by someone who is not even qualified to preside over a third-rate banana republic. However, it is not hopeless since the Americans are not our only ally and we have like-minded partners in the form of Japan, South Korea, Australia, maybe some from ASEAN in the region who together can still form a formidable front against the Chinese.
Make the most of alliance with U.S., strengthen relations with other countries
A dead giveaway of Chinese weakness is the panic and desperation that they are now exhibiting as Japan has openly declared involvement in possible conflicts outside of the Home Islands such as in Taiwan as this pose as an existential threat to the Japanese. Also, as long as Trump has not yet pushed the Philippines under the bus the way he has been trying to do to Zelenskyy, then the Philippine government should continue to exploit all possible remaining opportunities present in the alliance with the Americans. At the same time the Philippines should strengthen multilateral defense activities with those aforementioned countries and then some, because one never knows when the greatest deal maker in the world might just agree to something with China that sells the Philippines down the river.
Is there a way out for the Americans in this mess that they created? Well, the American people who are still rational can try to do something for their country that the U.S. has frequently done to others. They can try regime change on themselves.
Anyway, so much for ironclad guarantees!
Jose Antonio Custodio is a military historian who also dabbles in national security and defense commentary. He sometimes teaches when he has the opportunity to do so, and has authored articles and co-authored books on military history. He is also an unabashed ailurophile, an unrepentant bibliophile, and an avid scale modeler.
Note: Thumbnail photo for this column was produced with the aid of Google Gemini.
